The 30-years arms embargo on Somalia and their lasting impact

By: Moustapha Abtiyow

Security and intelligence analysts.

On 23 January 1992, UN security council passed a major overhaul policy that permanently halts any open arms deal with Somalia, and imposed strict arms embargo on Somalia in reaction to the armed conflict erupted in the country, followed by humanitarian plight that killed nearly 300,000 people in the first two years of the conflict.

The formation of UN arms embargo embedded the illicit arms and ammunition flow into the country but have left a lasting impact on Somali’s federal government to acquire the necessary arms to defeat Al-Shabaab while it frequently the reliance  on foreign troops.

Warlords

Fallowing a decade of chaos and anarchy that plagued the country. A Transitional National Government "TNG" was established in April 2000, a year after the national reconciliation conference hosted by Djibouti culminated. An interim government was formed in Arta-Djibouti with the warlords at home. However, the TNG was internationally recognized central government of Somalia, which had all organs of national government, including executive, judicial structure as well as a parliament, police force and military.

In the meantime, the warlords have vehemently opposed the TNG as the only legitimate government in the country, and threatened to oust them from the capital city of "Mogadishu", where the most powerful warlords in the country have dominantly occupied since the collapse of the central government early 1991.  

Fallowing a year of social and political upheaval, the UN security council reviewed its arms embargo on Somali to support the fledged government, by considering the imminent threat posed by the warlords. Suddenly, the TNG was allowed to only import non-lethal military equipment to use for VIP government protection and humanitarian operations. Yet the TNG efforts ended in deadlock and literally failed to grasp the power due to incompetence and was finally debilitated by the powerful warlords in Mogadishu.

Ethiopia’s rescue

In 2004, another national reconciliation conference was held in Embagati-Kenya under the auspices of ‘Inter-Governmental Authority on Development’ (IGAD) that subsequently led the formation of the second interim government in abroad, while, all efforts taken by the proceeding government had been in vain and turned into a fiasco.

The new formed transitional federal government “TFG” made up largely of warlords to avoid another catastrophic failure to recur, by considering, the previous government’s inability to reaffirm the power. However, the aim of establishing current TFG was to restore law and order and rebuild national institutions by any means necessary.  Instantly, the TFG have come up with unwavering commitments to tackle the great challenges that lies ahead, whereof, The Islamic Union Court militants were preparing to wage a major offensive against the weak TFG that would oust them from the only town (Baidoa) that the TFG has effectively controls in Somalia.

 In addition, the TFG invited Ethiopia to militarily intervene the situation before the fledged government was overthrown. in return, Ethiopia act promptly by sending its troops to Somalia, which simultaneously rescued the Transnational Federal Government of Somalia and extinguished the rapid expansion of the Islamic Courts Union in the country. Consequently, the coalition forces have successfully reinstalled the federal government in the villa Somalia’s presidential palace after 17 years.

Ethiopian troops have been forced to confront excessive armed resistances from the militants mainly Mogadishu based clans ‘Hawiye’ who strongly opposed Ethiopia’s presence in the city. they consider Ethiopia’s army as an occupation forces rather than peace makers.

In 2009, Ethiopia withdraws its troops from Somalia two years after assisting the internationally backed government and had successfully confronted the ICU’s expansion while settling the TFG in Mogadishu the capital city of Somalia.

Relying on AMISOM

The third Reconciliation conference sponsored by UN was once again held in Djibouti to form a broad government by inviting the major armed groups including, the main rival “Alliance for re-liberation of Somalia” led by former chairman of the Islamic Court Union “Sharif Sheikh Ahmed” who fled to Eretria, and the TFG’s interim prime minister Nur Adde. UN-brokered peace initiative resulted both parties to reached a landmark agreement, which paved the way for permanent ceasefire and subsequently culminated a unity government.

Days after signing peace agreement, several armed groups opt out due to Ethiopia’s withdrawal, while moderate rebels joined the unity government.  While, on the other side, “Al-Shabaab” the radical extremist vowed to continue fighting until the current TFG is ousted and Somalia turns into a fundamentalist Islamic state governed by sharia law, as well as all foreign peace keeping troops leave the country.

These irrational conditions have deteriorated the situation, giving the interim government a harrowing experience, since it was heavily relied on AMISOM for security due to incapacity and lack of military equipment’s. however, the new elected president Sharif Sh Ahmed has been encountered with fierce resistance from Al-Shabaab and was welcomed with mortar attacks on his first days in the office. At that time, The TFG remains a weak faction confined into small parts in Mogadishu, controls only seven distracts out of the 17 distracts of the capital. whereby, Al-Shabaab doubled its attacks as it seized a large swathe in southern and central regions.

Fallowing two years of a series military campaign led by Somali forces with the assistance of African peace keeping troops “AMISOM”, in 2011, al-Shabaab has lost the vast majority of its strong-hold bases in Mogadishu in a staggering defeat and were retreated into the outskirts of the city, where they began to orchestrate suicide and mortar attacks.

African peace keeping troops played leading role in competing al-Shabaab on various combats despite suffering heavy casualties. AMISOM still inclines to continually support federal government of Somalia in implementing national security plan. nevertheless, The TFG’s increasingly reliance on foreign troops illustrated the weakness and the consistent failure of the Somali forces to face out al-Shabaab without been relied on AMISOM.  The capacity of Somali national forces remains minimal due to limited military equipment supplies and physical reach into the country.

In coordination with federal government of Somalia, US Africa commend persistently conducts drone strikes on al-Shabaab bases and ground combats. The raids carried out by AFRICOM has killed top leaders including its two co-founders “Adan Hashi” in 2008 and his successor ‘Ahmed Godane’ in 2014.

Turkey’s military role  

In September 2017, Turkey opens its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu’s outskirt to train over 10,000 of well-trained forces, which will have the ability to withstand the security threats posed by the militants and bridge the gap after the exit plan of African peace keeping troops in Somalia begins in 2021. Turkey promised to equip every soldier who is being trained at the camp.

However, more than 200 of Turkish military personals stationed at the base endeavoring to resuscitate the collapsed security apparatus in the country. Not so long ago, Somali national army was once considered to be one of the most powerful forces in Africa.  unfortunately, during the civil war the entire national forces has crumbled.

Despite turkey’s recent efforts, Somali forces still lacks dramatic resurrection to stand on its feet again, specially finding enough funds for its operational activities, lack of military equipment and the most important, to lift the outdated arms embargo which restricts Somalia government to acquire necessary supplies to defeat the powerful militants al-Shabaab.

Thus, Somalia is only allowed to inquire rifles and machine guns with strict guidance monitored by UN committee.

In the last couple years, Turkish military training center has made considerable progress in producing nearly 3,000 of highly-trained forces which particularly played leading role in recent combats against insurgents. The elite forces known as ‘the eagle or Gorgor’ in Somali has liberated several cities under the auspices of al-Shabaab in Lower-Shebelle region of Somalia. However, the international community has lauded turkey’s efforts in restoring people’s hope through filling the most vital gaps, such as   providing humanitarian aid to the less privilege communities and supporting the current government in combating al-Shabaab and while at the same time, reshaping the national army.

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Unilateral sanction

The effectiveness of UN security council arms embargo on Somalia exclusively limits federal government of Somalia and restricts Somali national army’s ability to acquire weapons necessary to defeat terrorists, whereby, the sanction is virtually non-existence to the militants and the autonomous regions such as the self-declared region of Somaliland.

Peace in Somalia is still a feasible prospect, but the regional powers has to face up to its responsibilities and stop fueling the conflict by sending arms despite an official UN arms embargo

Somalia’s representative Abukar Dahir, speaking at UNSC, said that “sustained offensives against Al-Shabaab demonstrated the growing capabilities of his country’s security forces.  He requested continued international support to counter Al-Shabaab, stressing that the sanctions lack proper assessment of their effectiveness, and he again requested the full lifting of the arms embargo”.

In conclusion, the UN Security Council seemed strangely reluctant to held accountable for the non-legitimate authorities from violating the arms embargo imposed by the UN. While it’s obviously clear that the militants pose imminent threat to UN-backed government and the entire region at large. The arms embargo becomes stumbling block to every sitting government in defeating Al-Shabaab.